Geopolitical Risks Research

- In Europe, sovereign headlines took a turn for the worse (re Greece, Portugal & Spain) while commentary re the broader Eurozone economy was cautious. On the sovereign front, Germany's Finance Minister acknowledged for the first time that additional steps may have to be taken to deal w/Greece's debt burden, Reuters is reporting that privately many more people are talking about the idea of a Greece debt restructuring (despite officials throughout Europe denying that the idea is being considered) & a German weekly claimed that Greece would need to wipe out 40-50% of its debt loans to return to sustainable economic growth. The head of Germany's IFO research institute warned that the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis risks spreading to Spain b/c the country’s banks are involved in Portugal.

- Finland elections this weekend could jeopardize Europe’s ability to handle debt crisis – Reuters says there is now a 50% chance that Fineland will block eurozone aid to Portugal in elections scheduled for this weekend. Finland is the only euro zone country where EFSF bailout loans have to be approved by parliament. Reuters

- Wall St report, two years in the making, published by the Senate on Wed. The report, which sifted through 5000+ documents from a variety of companies, paints some firms in a bad light but the WSJ says it found no evidence of fraud. Goldman in particular is singled out and Sen Levine on Wed alleged that the company may have misled Congress during a Committee hearing in Apr ’10 (although he didn’t offer specifics). Levine said he would refer Goldman matters to the DOJ and SEC. WSJ/Bloomberg

- Libya – rebels say they are in talks w/”friendly” countries to secure weapons shipments in order to better battle against Qadaffi. The UK said it would supply the rebels w/1000 units of body armor although France says it has no intention of providing arms at the moment. The UK and France held meetings Wed night to discuss how to break the current stalemate in Libya and tip the scales in favor of the rebels – FT