Geopolitical Risks Research

· European sovereign debt –Greek debt restructuring talk won’t go away – once again, there is another article talking about a Greek debt restructuring (a report in the German weekly Die Zeit claims that Greece needs to wipe away 40-50% of its debt loan to return to a sustainable economic path; the article is quoting EU working group experts). Germany on Wed for the first time actually acknowledged that more steps could be possible when it comes to Greek debt – “German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Wednesday that additional steps would have to be taken to deal with Greece's huge debt burden if an analysis from the European Central Bank and European Commission in June showed it is unsustainable” (on Reuters). Publicly, officials all throughout Europe continue to deny that a Greek restructuring is being considered but privately Reuters says more people are talking about the idea. ECB’s Lorenzo Bin Smaghi said any move to restructure Greek debt would be a catastrophe.

· Greece may be unable to return to financial markets next year, finance minister George Papaconstantinou said – FT

· Greece will present new fiscal and privatization plans on Fri in an attempt to regain credibility w/investors – Reuters

· Greece – Yields on government bonds rallied; 10yr rose 14bps to >13% for a euro-era record. Bloomberg