Geopolitical Risks Research

Macau GGR MOP20.5bn, Up 44.6% YoY. For the third consecutive month, Macau has broken its monthly gross gaming revenue record. The post-CNY slowdown that the market was anticipating never materialized, as Macau saw its GGR grow 44.6% YoY in April (vs. 48.0% in March and 47.7% in February).

One-third of our full-year 2011 GGR target achieved. The MOP79.0bn (+43.3% YoY) in GGR banked during the first four months of the year is roughly 1/3 of our FY11 estimate of MOP235.5bn (implying 25% growth for the full year). In order to achieve our full-year estimate, monthly GGR for the remainder of the year will need to average around MOP19.5bn, equating to ~17% growth YoY (vs. the 43.3% growth reported YTD through April).

Galaxy Macau Opening: The Litmus Test. The opening of Galaxy Macau will test how well Macau handles significant increases in both gaming tables and hotel rooms. If Galaxy Macau is able to significantly grow the market, we suspect the street (including ourselves) will need to raise their Macau market size estimates again.